According to an Emerson College study, former President Donald Trump beats President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 general election by 47% to 45% among voters under 30. This contrasts with Biden’s 59% to 35% young vote win in 2020.
Several factors may explain this change. President Biden’s performance may be discouraging young voters. Since becoming office, Biden’s popularity ratings have been poor, and young people have criticized his economic and inflation management.
Trump’s populist platform may attract young people. Trump regularly says “drain the swamp” and put “America first.” This messaging may appeal to young people who believe the political system is biased.
Trump’s charisma may possibly attract young people. Trump is divisive and a star in the press. He may attract young voters with his personality and outsider status.
Trump leading young voters in a 2024 match-up is noteworthy for whatever reason. Youth are crucial to every election, and Trump will need their support if he runs again.
What do experts say?
Experts disagree on why young voters are supporting Trump. It may be due to Biden’s poor record in government, Trump’s populist rhetoric, or his personality.
Harvard Youth Poll director John Della Volpe attributes the trend to many causes. He claims that young people are “deeply frustrated” with the present system and want change. He argues Trump’s status as an “outsider” who is not bound to the political system appeals to young voters.
Former Obama senior advisor David Axelrod thinks Biden’s age and mental health caused the change. He claims that young voters worry that Biden is unqualified to be president and is not addressing their problems.
How does this affect the 2024 election?
Trump’s leading among young voters in a 2024 matchup is noteworthy. Youth are crucial to every election, and Trump will need their support if he runs again.
This is just one survey, and there is still a long way to go until the 2024 election. Between now and then, much may change, including youthful voter support for Trump.
Biden’s 2022 midterm performance is equally crucial. Biden may struggle to win re-election in 2024 if his approval numbers stay low.
Trump’s support among young people may affect the 2024 election. This is clearly a development Democrats and Republicans should watch.